LIVE--:--:--Z
S-1 STATUSRECEIVED·MUSK VOTING53.27%·CLASS A2.150B·CLASS B270M·TOTAL VOTES4.850B·LOCKUP T+90DARMED·LOCKUP T+180DARMED·PUBLIC FLOAT15.00%·ALPHABET7.50%·FIDELITY6.20%·FOUNDERS FUND4.80%·CONTROL MARGIN2.27pp·ROADSHOWACTIVE·PRICINGPENDING·EXCHANGENYSE·BRANDEDGAR LEDGER·FILING DATE2026-05-20·DUAL CLASS RATIO10:1·INSIDER LOCKUPT+365D·EDGAR FEEDLIVE·S-1 STATUSRECEIVED·MUSK VOTING53.27%·CLASS A2.150B·CLASS B270M·TOTAL VOTES4.850B·LOCKUP T+90DARMED·LOCKUP T+180DARMED·PUBLIC FLOAT15.00%·ALPHABET7.50%·FIDELITY6.20%·FOUNDERS FUND4.80%·CONTROL MARGIN2.27pp·ROADSHOWACTIVE·PRICINGPENDING·EXCHANGENYSE·BRANDEDGAR LEDGER·FILING DATE2026-05-20·DUAL CLASS RATIO10:1·INSIDER LOCKUPT+365D·EDGAR FEEDLIVE·
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EDGAR Ledger / Simulator

Speculative Market Intelligence Interface
Reading the market·Today's read

“Float scarcity is becoming a more compelling story than revenue scale — and the desk is starting to underwrite it.”

LIVE SIM
MISSION STATUS
FILING
RECEIVED
ROADSHOW
ACTIVE
PRICING
PENDING
LISTING
ARMED
LOCK-UP
LOADED
Analyst desk notes
Float mechanics are starting to dominate valuation narratives.— Composite desk read

Live SEC EDGAR · public filings

Real public-domain filings pulled directly from SEC EDGAR for the tracked CIK. Refreshes every 5 minutes.

Real sourcePublic dataTracked CIK: —Last fetched …
fetching SEC EDGAR…

This is the one panel on this site backed by primary-source data. CIK lookup may not match every entity — verify before quoting.

Market Consensus

Where the crowd thinks the IPO actually prices.

Bear case
$320
Base case
$540
Bull case
$780
$320$565 · Crowd median$780
70% confidence range
$450 – $685
Sentiment momentum
+18.0%
Community model

Float Shock Meter

Liquidity pressure heading into the nearest cliff.

55%
high
Current shock score
55/100
low · medium · high · critical
Next cliff in
T-62d
Lock-up T+90 expires
Imminent unlock size
+7.5%
of total shares
Estimate

Market psychology

Composite read of how the crowd is actually positioned.

  • Crowd positioning
    Long-tilted
  • Institutional confidence
    Constructive
  • Retail aggression
    Constructive
  • Sentiment momentum
    Drifting up
  • Volatility mood
    STRESSED
  • Pricing confidence
    Moderate
Community model
Market Cap & Share Price Controller

Live valuation simulator for hypothetical IPO pricing scenarios.

01
Target Market Cap
$1.75T

Drag to model implied market capitalization at IPO. Drives all USD figures below.

$1.0T$3.0T
Hypothetical Share Price
$100 /share

Drag to model the hypothetical IPO share price. Re-derives implied share count.

$100$1,500
Implied Total Shares
17.5B
vs 12.1B shares
Class A Outstanding
10.75B
88.8% Equity %
Class B Outstanding
1.35B
10× votes
Total Voting Power
24.25B
votes
Musk Absolute Control Margin · 51% Gauge

Stress-test the dual-class conversion trigger for Class B → Class A.

03
Current Voting Share
WATCHLIST
0%57.560%100%
51%
Control Threshold
51.0%
Safety Buffer
176.75M
shares
Musk Margin to Control
176.75M
shares · Class B
STRESS TEST
CONTROL SAFE

If Musk divests X% of his Class B holdings…

Models Musk converting a percentage of his Class B holdings into liquid Class A.

Sell Class B0%
0%100%
Shares Converted to Class A0 shares
$Capital Raised$0
Post-Sale Voting Share57.560%
Whale Tracker · Capitalization Table

Institutional and insider equity positions with voting-power allocation.

02
  • Elon Musk
    Insider
    $258.59B
    2.59B shares
    Class AClass B
    Voting Power57.560%
  • Employees & RSUs
    Insider
    $236.5B
    2.37B shares
    Class A
    Voting Power9.753%
  • Public Float (IPO)
    Retail / Float
    $161.25B
    1.61B shares
    Class A
    Voting Power6.649%
  • Alphabet (Google)
    Institution
    $80.63B
    806.25M shares
    Class A
    Voting Power3.325%
  • Fidelity
    Institution
    $66.65B
    666.5M shares
    Class A
    Voting Power2.748%
  • Sequoia Capital
    Institution
    $53.75B
    537.5M shares
    Class A
    Voting Power2.216%
  • Founders Fund
    Institution
    $51.6B
    516M shares
    Class A
    Voting Power2.128%
  • Other Strategic & Sovereign
    Institution
    $301.04B
    3.01B shares
    Class AClass B
    Voting Power15.621%
LEGEND
Insider
Institution
Retail / Float
Institutional Lock-Up Schedule & Supply Shock Map

Post-IPO unlock windows and float/locked supply rebalancing.

04
Float vs Locked Supply
Floating Supply · 13.33%
Locked Supply · 86.67%
Floating Supply 1.61BLocked Supply 10.49B
Day 0 · IPO
Lock-Up Expiration

Initial IPO float available to retail and global investors.

—
T + 90D
Lock-Up Expiration
up to +6.7%
Potential float shock

Strategic partners (Google) earliest unlock window.

  • Alphabet (Google)0%
T + 180D
Lock-Up Expiration
up to +33.8%
Potential float shock

Institutional investors (Fidelity, Founders Fund) standard lock-up release.

  • Employees & RSUs0%
  • Fidelity0%
  • Sequoia Capital0%
  • Founders Fund0%
T + 365D
Lock-Up Expiration
up to +46.3%
Potential float shock

Insider tranche, including secondary Musk allocation, becomes eligible.

  • Elon Musk0%
  • Other Strategic & Sovereign0%