v1.0
Methodology
Every number you see is reproducible from public filings using pure deterministic math. No black-box models, no hidden assumptions.
Primary Sources
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp · Form S-1 · Filed with SEC, 2026-05-20.
- SEC EDGAR — issuer profile, 13G institutional disclosures, related exhibits.
- Public statements and proxy disclosures regarding the dual-class structure.
Core Formulas
Total voting power
V_total = (Class A outstanding × 1) + (Class B outstanding × 10) = 4,850,000,000 votes.
Holder voting share
v_i = ((A_i × 1) + (B_i × 10)) / V_total.
Musk 51% defense margin
x_max = ⌊(currentVotes − 0.51 · V_total) / 9⌋. Each Class B share converted to Class A on sale loses 9 votes net, so divisor = 9.
Equity value at price P
value_i = (A_i + B_i) × P. Implied share count from market cap = MCap / P.
Assumptions & Caveats
- Class B converts 1:1 into Class A upon sale or transfer to a non-permitted holder.
- Lock-up windows are modeled at T+0, T+90, T+180, and T+365 days from listing.
- Holder percentages are simplified to the figures published in the S-1; granular sub-position changes (e.g. derivatives) are out of scope.
- Implied valuation slider is independent of share-count baseline — useful for stress-testing price/MCap divergence.