Insights
Long-form analysis on the SpaceX S-1, dual-class voting, and the institutional positioning ahead of the listing.
- 8 min read
How a Founder Like Musk Could Keep Control of SpaceX After Any IPO
The dual-class structure modeled here isn't unique, but a 10-to-1 ratio combined with concentrated Class B ownership would create one of the strongest founder defenses in modern markets. A hypothetical walk-through.
Read article - 10 min read
How to Read an S-1 Like a Pre-IPO Analyst — A SpaceX Scenario Walk-Through
Everything a generalist needs to read a hypothetical SpaceX S-1 fluently — share counts, lock-ups, institutional positioning, and the risks any prospectus of this size would foreground.
Read article - 9 min read
What Would a SpaceX IPO Actually Look Like? Three Scenarios
From a $1.2T conservative case to a $2.5T euphoria case, the valuation range for any hypothetical SpaceX listing spans nearly an order of magnitude. A community-scenario walk-through.
Read article - 8 min read
Starlink's Role in Any Hypothetical SpaceX IPO Valuation
Whether SpaceX lists Starlink as a separate company, keeps it as a wholly-owned segment, or carves it out post-IPO — each path produces a very different valuation arithmetic.
Read article - 11 min read
Lock-Up Risk in Mega IPOs — What History Suggests About SpaceX Scenarios
Coinbase fell 65% in the six months around its T+180 lock-up release. Snowflake gave back its premium. The pattern in mega IPOs is consistent enough to deserve a serious framework.
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Discord's $914M in 6 Form Ds and the $12B Microsoft acquisition that didn't close
Discord filed six Form D notices between 2018 and 2023 disclosing $914M in capital raised. The biggest single round closed three months before Microsoft reportedly tabled a $12B acquisition that Discord walked away from. The Form D paper trail tells that story with numbers.
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